In a recent analysis released by renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone market in China experienced a notable downturn in December 2024. According to the report, Apple’s iPhone shipments in the region saw a year-over-year decrease of approximately 10-12% compared to December 2023.
Kuo attributes this decline to a perceived stagnation in innovation, citing that the iPhone 16 series did not resonate well with Chinese consumers due to only marginal enhancements over its predecessor. Despite a generally stable smartphone market in China during December, Apple’s performance starkly contrasts with the trends observed.
Looking ahead, Kuo anticipates further reductions in Apple's sales during the first half of 2025. He argues that the forthcoming iPhone SE4 model is unlikely to significantly boost sales due to the traditionally limited impact of the SE series on the overall iPhone sales landscape.
Kuo’s outlook for the next iPhone generation—the iPhone 17 series—does not inspire confidence either. With speculation indicating a shift to exclusive eSIM usage and the elimination of physical SIM cards, Kuo warns that this may not sit well with the Chinese market, where not all telecommunication carriers currently support eSIM technology.
Overall, Kuo forecasts a total of 225 million iPhone shipments globally for 2025, a slight increase from 220 million shipments in 2024. However, this still falls short of the optimistic target of 240 million units.
