The ongoing shortage of memory chips is expected to significantly impact smartphone shipments this year. TrendForce's latest forecast indicates a potential 10% decline in global smartphone shipments, resulting in an estimated total of 1.135 billion units for 2026.
However, a more pessimistic scenario could see shipments drop by as much as 15%, which TrendForce refers to as the 'Bear-case scenario.' In this case, global smartphone shipments would be projected at around 1.061 billion units for the year. Despite 2025 being a modest year for smartphone sales, the market concluded on a positive note, experiencing a 2% growth with estimated shipments between 1.24 and 1.26 billion units.
Regardless of the outcome, average smartphone prices in 2026 are expected to rise. TrendForce highlights that while memory components historically represented 10-15% of a smartphone's bill of materials (BOM), this figure has now surged to 30-40%. This increase is anticipated to lead to reduced production for some manufacturers.
The impact of rising memory prices will differ among brands. Manufacturers like Samsung, benefiting from strong vertical integration and being a major memory supplier, are likely to adapt better to these cost changes. Conversely, Apple has a customer base that has historically been more accepting of price increases, positioning the company favorably.
In stark contrast, many Chinese OEMs, particularly brands like Xiaomi, may struggle as their customer base tends to be more price-sensitive, especially for entry-level devices that are more vulnerable to fluctuations in cost.
Source
